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제목 : Greece's Euro Exit Seems Inevitable 글쓴이 : eu-center
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Greece's Euro Exit Seems Inevitable
Mar, 17, 2015 By Mark Gilbert



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Greece's money troubles resemble a game of pass the parcel, where each successive participant rips another sheet of wrapping paper off the box which turns out to be empty when the final recipient reaches the core. With time and money running out, a successful endgame seems even less likely than it did a week or a month ago. It's increasingly obvious that the government's election promises are incompatible with the economic demands of its euro partners. Something's got to give.


The current money-go-round is unsustainable. Euro-region taxpayers fund their governments, which in turn bankroll the European Central Bank. Cash from the ECB's Emergency Liquidity Scheme flows to the Greek banks; they buy treasury bills from their government, which uses the proceeds to … repay its International Monetary Fund debts! No wonder a recent poll by German broadcaster ZDF shows 52 percent of Germans say they want Greece out of the euro, up from 41 percent last month.


Greece's three-year bond yield is back above 20 percent, double what it was just before Alexis Tsipras was elected prime minister on an anti-austerity platform in January. At that level, there's no way Greece can end its reliance on its bailout partners anytime soon.


German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was scathing yesterday about Greece's efforts to balance its election promises with its bailout obligations, and about its standing with international investors: 

"None of my colleagues, or anyone in the international institutions, can tell me how this is supposed to work. Greece was able to sell those treasury bills only in Greece, with no foreign investor ready to invest. That means that all of the confidence was destroyed again.“


Every day's delay in cutting a deal pushes Greece a little closer to leaving the common currency. That would be a shame, since it's an outcome no one apart from Schaeuble seems to desire. The mutability of euro membership could also unleash contagion and a domino effect. But it looks increasingly inevitable. 


source :
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-17/greece-s-euro-exit-seems-inevitable


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